Tuesday, January 31, 2017

What to Expect from Reese McGuire

milb.com photo


  The signing of  C Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a minor league deal last week intensifies the competition for the job of backing up Blue Jays incumbent Russell Martin when spring training starts this month.
   And there have been rumblings that Reese McGuire, acquired in the Francisco Liriano deal last summer, is one of the combatants for that back up spot.
   If that rumour is true, it shows that even though he finished the season with AA New Hampshire, the Blue Jays front office believes the 2013 Pirates' first rounder (14th overall) has passed A.J. Jimenez as the top Catching prospect in the organization.
   While it's hard to see McGuire breaking camp with the team this April, there is no doubt that he profiles at least as a decent MLB back up.  Concerns about his bat have persisted since high school, but there is little doubt about his defensive skills, which Baseball America noted in their scouting report prior to the draft:
His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power. 

  McGuire progressed through the Pirates' system quickly, rising as high as their 5th-ranked prospect by 2014, and even cracked BA's Top 100.  Expectations dipped as his offensive production didn't develop as expected.  Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus observes that while McGuire puts the ball in play,  there's not a lot of hard contact:

The contact ability is there to make him an average (or perhaps slightly above) hitter, but he’s yet to show the kind of power that would stop pitchers from challenging him, and more than his fair share of at-bats end in weak contact. He works deep counts and shows an advanced approach at the plate, and will flash average raw power in BP, so there’s something to latch onto for the dreamers out there.
    At 5'11"/215, McGuire may be on the stocky side, but he moves well behind the plate and on the bases, suggesting both athleticism and a high baseball IQ.  He sets a good target for his pitchers, and does not give away pitch locations to hitters.  He has smooth actions when receiving pitches, which allows him to frame well:

video

   McGuire's ability to control the running game is also an important part of his toolkit.  He threw out 39% of would-be Eastern League base runners prior to his trade to Toronto; the lower success rate he experienced with New Hampshire (17%) may be attributable to his working with a new pitching staff, and because the league stopped running on him.  
   McGuire may not have a cannon for an arm, but he has superb footwork, a quick release, and a deadly accurate arm - he gets rid of the ball quickly, and the ball often arrives before the runner.  If he makes the team this year, it may take him a while to make any noise with his bat, but fans will appreciate his throwing skills very quickly.

   At the plate, McGuire has shown good strike zone judgement over the course of his minor league career. The left-handed hitter uses a leg kick to load up his swing, and he shows good bat-to-ball skills by putting a lot of balls in play, but he doesn't make a lot of hard contact.  He drops his hands as he strides, and he doesn't appear to have the bat speed to get his barrel into the hitting zone early enough to drive the ball more - there's not a lot of loft to that swing, either.  Cubs Scout Jason Parks, writing for Baseball Prospectus, once wrote that "Hands are the mothers of hitting," when it comes to their role in a batter's swing:
Hands establish the physical connection with the bat, but they also control the navigational system that takes the bat into the load, into the zone, into the path of the baseball, and through the secondary extension......When a hitter rushes or drops his hands, such mechanical hitches either get ironed out or the hitter gets exposed in a graphic manner.
   Going over video of McGuire's ABs since he joined New Hampshire, it does appear that former Fisher Cats hitting coach Stubby Clapp helped limit McGuire's hands drop.  It did not reflect it in his numbers for August, but he did appear to be driving the ball more.  This may be one of the reasons the Blue Jays feel he's ready to move on.

 Given his build and athletic skills, there is still some hope that the power in his bat might develop, but his mechanics may need adjusting if he's ever to fulfil that projection. McGuire may have to lengthen his swing, and trade some of those walks (about a 10% rate last year) for some added pop. 

   Given the fact that his bat may still be developing, it's interesting to hear that he may be in the mix for a big league job this spring.  From a developmental point of view, it might be better to leave him in Buffalo, and allow him plenty of reps, and time to handle pitching prospects like Conner Greene, or possibly even Sean Reid-Foley later in the season.  Or this may be a signal that the Blue Jays feel that his bat has gone as far as it can, and since his glove is already close to major league-ready, it's time to begin his career as a dependable MLB back up.

   The departure of R.A Dickey and his personal Catcher Josh Thole now gives the Blue Jays added flexibility when it comes to this position.  Martin can get rest on a more predictable schedule this year (day game after a night game, etc), which should boost his production and sharpen his defence as the season nears its end (Martin posted a .625 OPS last Sept/Oct).  Even in a secondary role, McGuire may become a valuable component of a team looking to reach the playoffs for the third straight year.

Friday, January 27, 2017

Projecting the Rosters - New Hampshire

Sean Reid-Foley/Clutchlings photo

   Minor League Opening Day is getting closer, and the potential rosters of the Blue Jays affiliates are becoming a little clearer.
   The New Hampshire Fisher Cats became a Blue Jays affiliate in 2003, and the partnership has been a successful one, even with Toronto attempting to help relocate an Eastern League team in Ottawa in 2014, only to have Ottawa city council balk at footing the bill for necessary stadium upgrades.  The PDC between the two sides was extended last year for another two years, to 2018.  The team is solidly in Red Sox country, and some of the Fisher Cats promotions reflect that.
   A former Red Sox, Gary Allenson, will return to New Hampshire to manage this year after spending the last three year piloting Buffalo.  Three of the top prospects in the system (Richie Urena, Anthony Alford, and Sean Reid-Foley) should start the season at this level. Cuban IFA Lourdes Gurriel may begin the season at AA, but his April destination will largely depend on his spring training progress - he hasn't faced live pitching in a year and a half.  Some have suggested that he starts the season at Dunedin, before making his way north to New Hampshire or Buffalo once the weather warms up.
   In many ways the jump to AA is the highest in the minor leagues.  The consensus is that players at that level "have a plan":  they realize that they no longer can get by on the strength of their physical talents alone. Pitchers realize that they can't necessarily blow the ball by hitters, so command, sequencing, and secondary pitches become extremely important.  Hitters come to learn that approach becomes everything, and that they can't just sit on mistake pitches any more in order to succeed.
Catcher

PlayerAge2016 teamAve/OBP/SLG
CDanny Jansen21Dunedin.218/.316/.269
CMike Reeves26Dunedin.244/.365/.348

   The organization is very high on Jansen, who has advanced receiving skills.  Agile, with excellent pitch calling and framing skills, Jansen has had the hardest time staying healthy, missing hugh chunks of time in 3 of his first 4 pro seasons with injuries.  He may profile as a defense-first Catcher, but the bat has some power potential, and he puts the ball in play.  Jansen redeemed himself with a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League.  Reese McGuire and Max Pentecost (provided he stays at the position) may have passed Jansen on the organization depth chart, but team officials have said that he still figures in their long-range plans.
   Peterborough, ON native Reeves got off to a solid start in the Australian Baseball League, but found himself shifted to 3rd Base at times when regular Canberra receiver Robbie Perkins rejoined the team. Reeves got off to a hot start with Canberra, but cooled over the last half of the ABL season.

Infielders

PlayerAge2016 teamAve/OBP/SLG
1BRyan McBroom24Dunedin.266/318/.455
2BChristian Lopes24Dunedin/NH.283/.353/.402
SSRichie Urena20Dunedin/NH.295/.335/434
3BMitch Nay23
DHMatt Dean24NH/Dunedin.216/.297/.305
UTGunnar Heidt24Lansing/Dunedin.263/.345/.419
   
   Urena is the highlight here, but he's not the only name to watch.  McBroom, the 2015 Midwest League MVP, has never been considered a top prospect, but he's hit at every level, hitting 21 Homers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League last year.  He's a bat-first prospect, however, which has limited his outlook.  If he can continue to hit the long ball in AA, however, we may have to reconsider his status.
Richard Urena/Clutchlings photo

  Nay was once an up-and-coming prospect, even seeing some action with the big team toward the end of spring training two years ago.  Injuries limited him to 22 GCL ABs last season, and after struggling in High A in 2015, he will be looking to regain his former standing.
   Urena figures to be in Buffalo by mid-season at the latest.  He has proven he has the skills on both sides of the ball to become a major league regular, and he should find a home in the bigs by 2018 or 2019.

Outfielders

PlayerAge2016 teamAve/OBP/SLG
OFDerrick Loveless23NH/Dunedin.237/.337/.415
OFAnthony Alford22Dunedin.236/.344/.378
OFJonathan Davis24Dunedin.252/.376/.441
OFDavid Harris25Dunedin.221/.268/.317
  After a breakout 2015, Alford had his share of injuries and inconsistency in what's been termed a sideways 2016, although he had a solid second half, and like Jansen, regained considerable status with a strong AFL campaign.  Davis had a fine 2016, finishing 2nd in the FSL in steals, and 3rd in runs and walks, as well as 5th in OBP.  The versatile Harris missed much of last season due to a PED suspension.  

Starting Pitchers

PlayerAge2016 teamWHIP/BB/9/K/9
SPSean Reid-Foley21Lansing/Dunedin1.01/3.0/10.1
SPJustin Shafer24Dunedin1.48/3.3/4.8
SPLuis Santos25Dunedin/NH1.30/2.6/8.3
SPJeremy Gabryzwski 23New Hampshire1.48/3.0/5.9
SPTaylor Cole27New Hampshire1.41/2.5/7.9
  With a simplified delivery, Reid-Foley found the strike zone more often, and had a breakout 2016.  He has the highest ceiling of any starting pitcher in the system.  Cole led the minors in Ks in 2014, but shoulder issues held him to 61 innings last year, and he should return to AA for a third season.  If he is healthy and there are openings in the system above him, he may reach Buffalo before long.  

Relief Pitchers

PlayerAge2016 teamWHIP/BB/9/K/9
RPChris Rowley26Dunedin1.28/2.2/6.3
RPTim Mayza25Dunedin/NH1.28/4.2/9.1
RPAdonys Cardona23Dunedin 1.83/7.4/6.2
RPConor Fisk24Lansing/Dun1.12/2.3/7.6
RPAlonzo Gonzalez25Dunedin/NH1.32/5.6/8.3
RPJose Fernandez23Dunedin1.44/7.0/8.5
RPBrad Allen27
Dunedin
1.50/4.9/7.8

   This is the group that helped propel Dunedin to a playoff birth last season, and they should move up to AA together.  Rowley, who hadn't pitched in two years while he served a military commitment, found success in the bullpen after struggling as a starter.  Southpaw Mayza's delivery is very tough on left handed hitters, while former top prospect Cardona, who has had his share of injuries, made a successful conversion to relieving. If New Hampshire makes a playoff appearance this year, the bullpen may be a big part of it.

Tim Mayza/Clutchlings photo

   

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Blue Jays Minor League Updates

Tim Leiper photo


   A couple of tidbits as we close in on the opening of MLB spring training, and the MiLB version a few weeks later.

Burns signs with Lotte
   Andy Burns was given his release so that he could sign with the Lotte Giants of the KBO.  Burns appeared in 10 games with the Blue Jays in 2016, going hitless in 7 plate appearances.  He was removed from the 40-man roster in November.
   An 11th round pick in 2011, Burns' versatility helped move him up the minor league ladder.  Originally a SS, Burns can play all four infield positions, as well as the corner outfield spots.  He told his hometown Coloradan, he's excited about the prospect playing in baseball-crazy South Korea:
"They absolutely love baseball over there," said Burns, who will leave for South Korea near the end of January. "It's going to be a really fun baseball atmosphere. I'm excited to get over there."
  Burns reportedly signed a one-year deal with Lotte, and may return to play stateside in 2018.

Hollon Released
   Word came via Vancouver freelancer Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey on Twitter) when he tweeted from the Canadians annual Hot Stove luncheon that Blue Jays Minor League Coordinator Charlie Wilson informed him that RHP Clinton Hollon has been released.
   To say that the 2013 2nd rounder has a checkered past would be putting it mildly.  Considered to be in possession of a first-round arm, concerns about his elbow and his makeup caused him to fall to the 2nd round, where he signed for below slot.  Hollon underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, and missed the entire season.  He came back impressively in 2015, pitching well for Vancouver and Lansing, before receiving a 50-game suspension in late August for a positive PED (amphetamines) test.  Then, just before he was set to return to action in late May, he received another 50-game penalty for a positive test for a drug of abuse.
   The Blue Jays stood by Hollon, and invited him to Instructs last fall.  Obviously, somewhere along the way the club felt that his mental and/or physical approach to the game was lacking, which is why they decided to release him.  The club has shown little tolerance for recreational drug use in the past, sending prospects Tyler Gonzales and Kramer Champlin packing after positive tests.
   You can't help but feel for Hollon, but at the same time, he likely was given ample opportunity to redeem himself, and failed to do so.  He denied knowingly taking amphetamines, which probably did not enamour him to the organization.  Given his electric arm, there still likely will be a team that will given him another chance.

Six Prospects Invited to Spring Training with the Big Club
  In addition to recent 40-man additions Richie Urena and Anthony Alford, six prospects were invited to the Blue Jays Major League training camp when it opens next month.
   Extending invitations to these players gives them a valuable experience from several perspectives.  Not only do they get to practice with and compete against MLB players and play in front of MLB spring training crowds, they get an opportunity to see the work ethic that propelled those MLB players to their team's 25-man rosters.  Alford was invited to his first spring training in 2015, and said that he learned a lot about preparation and how to conduct himself from watching Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista.  RHP Conner Greene was expected to begin last year at AA New Hampshire after spending the final month of the 2015 season there, but the club felt that he needed to work on his routine between starts, so he returned to High A Dunedin to start 2016.  He did improve on that routine, and no doubt his invitation was meant to serve as another lesson in his baseball education.

  Joining Greene will be 1B Rowdy Tellez, C Reese McGuire, OF Dwight Smith Jr, 2B Jon Berti, and relievers Will Browning and Tim Mayza.  Of this group, only Tellez might have a shot at breaking camp with the big team, although barring further roster moves, he appears headed for AAA Buffalo to start the season. Mayza and Browning are on the verge of joining the decent corps of relievers the Blue Jays have stockpiled in the upper levels of the system.  There have been some who suggest that Greene might be in line for a bullpen job this spring, but while his command issues would be likely improved if his repertoire of pitches was cut down in a relief role, the organization still views him as a starter.

  There was some concern last year that the Blue Jays minor league hitters did not get enough reps in spring training, and it caused some teams (New Hampshire, in particular) to get off to a slow start.   While having hitters in camp like Tellez is beneficial for them, it can also take away from their actual playing time, and it will be interesting to see how long they stay in camp before being shipped to the minor league complex this spring.

MLB Draft Order Set
   The Orioles' signing of Mark Trumbo took care of the last remaining free agent with compensation attached, meaning that the order for the June MLB draft has now been set.
   The Blue Jays will get the 22nd pick, as well as the 28th pick as compensation for the loss of free agent Edwin Encarnacion.  While the loss of Encarnacion hurts, the chance to pick two players in the top 30 could bode well for the future of the organization.  It might also give the team a chance to roll the dice with one of those two picks - they could play it safe with a proven college bat or arm with one, and take a chance on a high school player with high upside but equally high risk with the other.  Either way, it will help a system on the rebound add some more depth.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Blue Jays Announce Minor League Staffs

Dennis Holmberg - milb.com photo

  With major league spring training less than a month away (the minor league version is still six weeks off), the Blue Jays announced their minor league coaching staffs yesterday.

   Bobby Meacham was named AAA Buffalo's Manager in November.  He will swap spots with Gary Allenson, with Allenson assuming Meacham's duties with AA New Hampshire.  Allenson managed the Fisher Cats when he joined the organization in 2013, before taking over the reigns at Buffalo in 2014.

   Eric Wedge, who joined the team last year as a Player Development Adviser, was named Field Coordinator.  Jeff Ware, who had served as Lansing's Pitching Coach the past two seasons, was named Pitching Coordinator, while Ken Huckaby, who managed at Dunedin last year, will fill the role of Catching Coordinator this year.  Danny Solano, who was a roving infield coach the past two seasons, has been promoted to Infield Coordinator.

  Joining Meacham on the Bisons' staff will be Pitching Coach Bob Stanley, who is back for his third season with the Herd.  Former Blue Jays World Series hero Devon While, who had served as an advisor to the organization, was named Buffalo's Hitting Coach.

   Allenson's staff in New Hampshire will include former Jays farmhand Andy Fermin, who played for 7 seasons in the organization, as Position Coach, Vince Horsman, who was Dunedin's Pitching Coach last year, and Hitting Coach Ronnie Ortegon, who came over from the Braves organization.

   John Schneider, who played for six seasons in the Jays system moves up from Lansing to become High A Dunedin's Manager.  Schneider is the longest-tenured Manager in the organization, and is heading into his 9th season.  Corey Hart, who joined the club last year and coached at Dunedin, will be returning to the D-Jays as Hitting Coach, while Michel Abreu, who had a lengthy career in Cuba, Mexico, Japan, and the US, is making his coaching debut as Position Coach. A Pitching Coach has yet to be announced.

  Cesar Martin, who guided the GCL to a pair of wildly successful seasons in 2015 and 2016, moves up to take over the Manager's duties at Low A Lansing.  Willie Collazo moves up from Vancouver to become Martin's Pitching Coach, and Donnie Murphy returns as Hitting Coach.  Chris Schaeffer, who caught for 4 seasons in the system, becomes the club's Position Coach.

  Veteran minor league Manager Rich Miller re-joins the organization, and will try to bring the magic back to short-season Vancouver.  The Canadians are one of minor league baseball's best-supported franchises, but have fallen on tough times the past two years.  Long-time Pitching Coach Jim Czajkowski and Hitting Coach Dave Pano (for his seventh consecutive season) will return.  That duo, along with Miller, brought the C's their first-ever Northwest League title in 2011.

 Manager Dennis Holmberg will return for a 7th season to rookie-level Bluefield.  Holmberg has Managed for 29 seasons, and has been a part of the organization for 38 years. There's no word on his coaching staff yet, but Carlos Villalobos (Hitting) and Antonio Caceres (Pitching) were with him last year.  John Lott wrote a great article about Holmberg last year that's well worth a read.

   Another former Blue Jays minor league Catcher, Luis Hurtado, will be making his debut as the GCL Blue Jays' Manager.  Juan Rincon will join as Pitching Coach, while Australian Paul Elliott, who has scouted, coached, and managed for two decades in the system, will be the Hitting Coach.

   An interesting move is that of John Tamargo Jr.  Tamargo managed Vancouver last year, and managed Lansing from 2012-14, and now will head up the Jays entry in the Dominican Summer League, assisted by long time Dominican Field Coordinator Pablo Cruz.

   The club's new High Performance division also made some announcements, with Jeremy Trach becoming the Minor League Strength and Conditioning Coordinator, while Ben Freakley Jr joins the system as Mental Performance Coach, and Pat Chase becomes Rehab Coordinator.

   Along with scouts, minor league staff are truly the unsung heroes of each organization.  The Managers and Coaches are given the raw goods to work with, and have to put in long hours with prospects before they become finished products.  Far away from the bright lights and glamour of MLB, these individuals have to deal with the long bus rides and time away from their families during the season.  They share a common vision, and a common methodology on how to instruct prospects.

 

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Tim Raines - A Personal History

si.com photo

   It was a Saturday afternoon in late September of 1979 that I first saw Tim Raines.
Just a few days past his 20th birthday, he had been called up earlier that month and added to the expanded 40-man roster as a pinch runner as the Montreal Expos took part in my first pennant race.
   The Expos had been in a pennant race in 1973, but that was before I was old enough to appreciate meaningful September baseball.
   Given uniform number 60, Raines was called in to pinch run for Ellis Valentine after he led off the bottom of the 9th in a tie game with a single.  The Expos had lost to the Phillies the night before at Olympic Stadium, putting them two games back of the NL East-leading Pirates.  Quite simply, it was do or die for Montreal, and even though Valentine was a decent runner, Manager Dick Williams was pulling out all the stops to keep the Expos from being eliminated from post-season play after the Phils had tied the game in the top of the 9th.
   Slugger Larry Parrish laid down a bunt to advance Raines to 2nd, then Pitcher Rawley Eastwick's wild pitch moved the winning run to 3rd a batter later.  With Rusty Staub (re-acquired in July) about to pinch-hit for the Pitcher's spot, Philadelphia brought in southpaw Tug McGraw to face the left-hand hitting Staub. Williams countered with Dave Cash, a forgotten man who had come to Montreal with much fanfare as a free agent in 1977, but had lost his 2nd base job that year to Rodney Scott.
   Cash's single to right field scored Raines, giving the Expos the walk-off win.  With the Pirates losing in 13 innings to the Cubs, the Expos had pulled to within a game of the Bucs.
 
    In the late 1970s, Canadians were limited to two televised games per week - the regular Wednesday night Expos broadcast on CBC, and the weekend game of the week on NBC.  On this September weekend, however, CBC added both the Saturday and Sunday Expos games.  As a young fan who had followed the team closely, however, I had no idea who this young pinch runner was in those pre-Baseball America days.  And while the Expos always seemed to just fall short for the next half dozen years, one constant was this speedy outfielder.
      Throughout the 1980s, I tried to pattern my game after Raines.  I wore his number, and even tried to grow a moustache like his.  We had a couple of similarities - both of us were on the smaller side, both relied on speed, but other than that, that was about it.  There was little Raines could not do - he was not a big power hitter, of course, but he could work the count like few players in MLB history. Over the course of his 23 year career, he struck out more than he walked only once.  And then there was his 1983 line:
          G     PA   AB   R      H   2B   3B    HR  RBI   SB   CS   SO   BB    AVE OBP SLG OPS
156 720 615 133 183 32 8 11 71     90 14 97 70 .298 . 393 .429  .822

  This was in the midst of seven of the best consecutive offensive seasons by any player in MLB history.  Raines could seemingly get on base and steal second almost at will.  In 1987, when his season debut was delayed until May 1st because the owners thought they could get together and deny themselves the best free agents, Raines (without a spring training) went 4-5 with a walk, stolen base, and a game-winning grand slam. Raines, at his peak, could beat you in so many ways.  Early in his career, it was via the walk and stolen base; as he aged and matured as a hitter, Raines was shifted to the 3rd spot in the order,  and he became a dangerous hitter, posting a .955 OPS in 87.  His base-stealing talents were obvious, but he was a true student of the running game.  Many times, it appeared that the Catcher's throw had beaten Raines to second, but he would avoid the tag by sliding to the inside part of the bag.  Those smarts would allow him to swipe 40 consecutive bases later in his career.  Not gifted with a strong throwing arm, the Expos did have trouble finding a place for Raines to play.  He started out at 2nd, but was shifted to the outfield in his second season. His ability to get good reads on fly balls and his accurate arm allowed him to record 21 assists in 1983.
   Raines' drug difficulties in 1982 have been well documented.  It was a time when cocaine use was fairly rampant across the game, and his involvement likely cost him in the eyes of some Hall of Fame voters.  To his credit, with the help of teammate (and fellow Hall of Famer) Hawk Dawson, Raines took ownership of his addiction, got himself cleaned up, and was a model citizen for the rest of his career.

   The first half of the 80s were rollicking times at the Big Owe.  One of my memories of that time was driving home from my grandparents farm in Eastern Ontario (a four hour trip), listening to Dave Van Horne and Duke Snider calling the games on an AM radio station in Oshawa, ON, with the strains of The Happy Wanderer in the background during Van Horne's pre-game, as well as the Expos theme song:


   The mid-80s also ushered in a new era of sports broadcasting, with the advent of  TSN in Canada. Eager for programming, the new network dished out a huge slate of games of both the Expos and the Blue Jays. Now, we could see Raines' brilliance on a regular basis.  We take for granted today that we can watch every game of our team's coverage, but up until 1984, that wasn't the case.  It was a true novelty to have it, and with TSN's birth coinciding with the Blue Jays rise to pennant contender, it was as if a baseball fan had died and gone to heaven.

   All good things come to an end, however, and as the 80s came to a close, the Expos were no longer consistently competitive, and the Big O was no longer full.  Raines' 1987 was to be the high water mark of his career.  My playing days were coming to an end, and so was Raines' time as an Expo.    He continued to be a useful player into his 40s, but work and raising a family in the 90s gave me little time to follow him as closely has I had in his heyday.
 
   Raines has added to his considerable reputation with his work as a Blue Jays minor league instructor, and in my writing about Blue Jays prospects, I've had many players and people in the organization rave about his work.  His popularity with the players is obvious:










     Anthony Alford, who had a breakout season in 2015 under Raines' tutelage, had this to say about his mentor:
 I know he's one of the best guys you will ever meet. He's been awesome. Not only as an instructor, but also as a person. It's always a good time working with him. He makes everything fun. When you're having a bad day, he will find a way to make you smile. One of the most genuine guys I've ever been around. Everyone in the org loves him. I'm definitely a big fan of Rock.
   Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, the Lansing Lugnuts broadcaster and director of media relations, has watched Raines work with young Blue Jays prospects since 2012, and finds him "fascinating':
----- one of the greatest players in MLB history, and yet totally approachable, hilarious, and a pleasure to watch with the young players. I love whenever Rock comes to town.  
If you didn't know about his career, and you were only just meeting him, you'd have no idea that this relaxed, affable guy was one of the greatest leadoff hitters / base stealers of all time. And he's a heck of a ping-pong player.
   It was a long time coming, but Raines is finally going to Cooperstown.  His induction brought back a flood of memories for many, including Canada's Prime Minister:

Friday, January 13, 2017

Projecting the Rosters - Dunedin


The Dunedin Blue Jays are Toronto's longest-serving minor league affiliate.  Toronto has fielded a team in their Florida State League home since 1987, when they revived a franchise that had been mothballed since 1978.  Local ownership could not be found, so the team assumed control of the team when it returned to FSL play.  The D-Jays are one of the lowest-drawing teams in the league, consistently ranking last or next-to-last in attendance for two decades.  The FSL is not one of the minors' attendance leaders, but Toronto prospects usually play for crowds of about 750 in their home park.  That's probably not a major concern for the organization, however.  In addition to acting as another rung on the developmental ladder, Dunedin is a place where prospects with some medical issues can be housed in order to keep a closer eye on them.
   Hopefully, with the stadium upgrades that the Blue Jays and the City of Dunedin agreed upon last fall, that might translate into more fans for the players when they are completed by the spring of 2019.

   These roster projections are a matter of conjecture.  I make them by considering the development of each player, and trying to match it with the goals the organization likely has for that player.  With minor league spring training still just under two months away, many changes can take place. Injuries, stalled or accelerated development, and roster moves at other levels all could have an impact on prospect placement.

Catcher

PositionAge2016 teamAve/OBP/SLG
CMax Pentecost23Lansing-Dun.302/361/.486
CRyan Hissey22Lansing .246/.310/.337

   Pentecost DH'd exclusively since returning in early May last year, his first game action in almost two years while he recovered from shoulder surgeries. While his ultimate position may be somewhere else on the diamond, the plan for this year is to have him return behind the plate to get much needed reps.  Hissey did the bulk of the Catching at Lansing last year, and even though his bat tailed off a bit from 2015, he improved his receiving skills by leaps and bounds.  Michael De La Cruz and Justin Atkinson have served in back up roles (Atkinson in several positions), but the Blue Jays would likely prefer a more polished receiver like Hissey to give Pentecost regular breaks.

Infield

1BJuan Kelly22Lansing.274/.356/.448
2BJohn LaPrise23Lansing-Dun.261/.336/.318
SSJC Cardenas22Lansing.206/.279/.294
3BCarl Wise22Lansing..240/.291/.329
UTRyan Metzler23Lansing.164/.260/.246
1B/OFConnor Panas23Lansing.231/.343/.430

    Not the strongest assemblage of talent in the organization, Kelly made the most progress of the group, and Panas tied for 3rd in the Midwest League in Home Runs.

Outfield

PositionPlayerAge2016 teamAve/OBP/SLG
OFJosh Almonte22Lansing-Dun.199/.245/.275
OFDJ Davis22Dunedin.197/.295/.263
OFAndrew Guillotte23Lansing-Dun.244/.315/.337
OFLane Thomas21Lansing.216/.330/.348
  
  Again, not a stronghold of prospects.  Davis will likely repeat High A, and Thomas has had trouble staying healthy the last two seasons, although moving him back to CF seemed to help his game last year.

Starting Pitching

PositionPlayerAge2016 teamWHIP/K/9/BB/9
SPJon Harris23Lansing-Dun1.15/6.9/2.6
SPFranciso Rios21Lansing-Dun1.14/8.1/2.2
SP Angel Perdomo22Lansing1.18/8.7/3.9
SPRyan Borucki22Dunedin-Lan1.35/7.8/2.5
SPJordan Romano23Lansing1.05/8.9/3.3
SPClinton Hollon22DNP
   This is one of the strongest rotations in the system.  Depending on what kind of roster additions are made at New Hampshire and Buffalo, Harris may begin the year at AA, despite the organization preferring to keep prospects at one level for at least the equivalent of one full season.
   Rios was dominant at Lansing before his May promotion to Dunedin, and despite his numbers taking a bit of a step back at the higher level, he missed more bats in the FSL.  Perdomo and Rios both were left unprotected at Rule 5 draft time, but both went unclaimed.  Borucki, making a comeback after missing most of 2015, started in Dunedin last year, but struggled, and went to Lansing when the Michigan weather warmed up.  He finished 2nd in the MWL in ERA, and was added to the 40-man roster in November. Romano came back from injury as well, and quietly had one of the best seasons of any Blue Jays pitching prospects, striking out a batter an inning - his 2.11 ERA would have led the MWL if he had enough innings to qualify.  Hollon is the forgotten man, his career interrupted by Tommy John, and a pair of drug suspensions.  Hollon was invited to Instructs last fall, and is looking to get his career back on track.

Relief Pitching

PositionPlayerAge2016 teamWHIP/K/9/BB/9
RPAndrew Case24Lansing1.10/7.2/2.3
RPDusty Isaacs25Lansing-Dun1.11/10.6/2.3
RPDan Lietz22Lansing1.35/7.1/3.9
RPDanny Young22Lansing1.50/6.9/3.9
RPKirby Snead22Lansing1.34/6.0/1.1
RPTom Robson23Dunedin-Lan2.07/6.6/6.5
RPJosh DeGraaf23Lansing1.23/7.4/2.5
   Again, another strength of this potential roster.  Case missed part of 2016 after failing to take a drug test, but was solid along with Isaacs, Lietz, Snead, and Young in Lansing's bullpen last year.  In his return from Tommy John, Robson seemed poised for great things last spring, but struggled with his command all year, and was eventually moved into relief.  DeGraaf's starting and relieving versatility will be a help when double headers start to pile up.  

    If you've been keeping track, this list actually has 26 names on it, instead of the maximum of 25, because I had trouble finding places for some of these players.  Pentecost and maybe Panas are the only impact bats in this lineup, but the pitching staff will likely keep the D-Jays in the majority of their games.  Still, while the post-season is not a priority, it's hard to see this team earning a playoff berth.

   If you want to follow the D-Jays progress this year, your options are limited.  Games are not streamed through MiLB.com's website, so listening online is about the only way to follow.  

Sunday, January 8, 2017

Projecting the Rosters - Lansing


   Even though a snow squall is currently obliterating the view out my family room window onto my backyard this blustery Sunday Southern Ontario morning, there is light at the end of the tunnel - Minor League Opening Day is about 90 days (or so) away.
    So that means it's time to call up Baseball Reference, grab a yellow legal pad, sharpen some pencils, and try to project the rosters of the Blue Jays four full season minor league teams.
 
   Starting at the bottom, we have the Lansing Lugnuts, of the Low A Midwestern League.  These are exciting times in the Michigan city - this past off season, they renewed their Player Development Contract with the Blue Jays for two years, a new 2000 sq ft special events venue in the outfield opens this season, and a three-story/84-unit apartment complex opened along the centrefield wall last August.  To top it off, Lansing may have the best collection of projected talent in the system this year, including 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who at 17 may already be one of the best prospects in all of baseball.

   In the process of constructing these rosters, I've looked at the performance of players on teams below them the previous season.  It's usually customary to advance one rung at a time up the full season ladder, but complicating the job of building Lansing's 2017 roster is that there are players from three levels (Vancouver, Bluefield, GCL Blue Jays) to consider.
   At best, these rosters are educated guesses, and there is considerable information unavailable to the average fan about team's plans for their players this season.  As well, spring training can largely dictate where a player lands that season - Rowdy Tellez seemed ticketed for another half season with Dunedin at the close of spring training last year, but his maturity and strike zone management persuaded the organization to accelerate his development, and he more than responded to the challenge.
   Like MLB teams, minor league clubs can have no more than 25 players on their active rosters. At times, they can be creative with their 7-Day disabled list,  in order to facilitate one or two more players for a brief period of time.
   I have included each player's age (as of January 1st, 2017), 2016 team(s), and relevant stats.
Catchers

PositionPlayer Age2016 teamAve/OBP/Slug
CJavier Hernandez20Vancouver.215/.291/.313
CMatt Morgan20Bluefield.179/.313/.286

  Hernandez is already possibly the best defensive Catcher in the organization, although his bat has been slow to develop.  Morgan has shown very little since being a 4th round pick two seasons ago.  He may be in competition with Bluefield teammate Ridge Smith, a 12th round pick last year.  

Infielders

PositionPlayer Age2016 teamAve/OBP/Slug
1BChristian Williams20Vancouver.236/.341/.340
2BCavan Biggio21Vancouver.273/.371/.349
2B/SSBo Bichette18GCL Jays.427/.451/.732
SSYeltsin Gudino19Vancouver.226/.338/.258
3BBryan Lizardo19Vancouver.220/.284/.333
3BVladimir Guerrero Jr17Bluefield.271/.359/.449
UTDeiferson Barreto21Vancouver.215/.259/.333
DHBradley Jones21Bluefield.291/.336/.578
   This will be an exciting group.  Guerrero is the obvious standout, but Biggio, and Bichette (whose first year of pro ball was a smashing success, despite missing a month due to appendicitis), and Appalachian League Home Run leader Jones will mean that this is a club that should produce some runs.  Bichette may split time with Gudino and Biggio, and the only reason that he may start the season in Vancouver in June instead of Lansing in April is to give him more playing time at Extended.  

Outfielders

PositionPlayer Age2016 teamAve/OBP/Slug
OFJoshua Palacios21Vancouver.330/.397/.426
OFJ.B. Woodman22Vancouver.297/.391/.445
OFJake Anderson24Lansing/Van.199/.260/.290
OFReggie Pruitt19Bluefield.237/.316/.266
   Palacios and Woodman were promoted to Lansing in late August, and both more than held their own against MWL pitching.  Anderson, the prodigal 2011 compensation round pick, made his return to competition last year after being limited to only 73 At Bats from 2013 to 2015 because of injury.  He began the season with Lansing, but finished with Vancouver, and didn't see a whole lot of strikes in his time in the Northwest League.  Pruitt, the 2015 23rd rounder whose draft stock dipped because of a college commitment, re-tooled his swing at Instructs last fall, and may be a spring training surprise.  If he isn't, Rodrgio Orozco (.241/.348/.289 at Vancouver last year),  Norberto Obeso (.316/.441/.408 in the GCL), or Lance Jones (.325/.486/.429 at Bluefield) may fill out the roster.

Starting Pitchers

PositionPlayerAge2016 teamWHIP/K/9/BB.9
SPJustin Maese20Van-Lansing1.14/7.0/1.6
SPPatrick Murphy20Lansing-Van1.46/6.8/3.7
SPT.J. Zeuch21Van-Lansing1.12/10.1/1.9
SPYennsy Diaz20Bluefield1.53/7.7/4.8
SPJose Espada19Bluefield1.23/.5.4/2.0
   The top end of this rotation can probably match any in the MWL.  Maese, a 2015 3rd rounder, reached Lansing last summer in only his second season of pro ball, while Murphy, whose own injury woes kept him sidelined him for almost two years, made a strong comeback in 2016, and was Vancouver's top pitcher. Zeuch, Toronto's top pick in last year's draft, gives Lansing a formidable 1-2-3 set of starters.  Beyond that, it's a toss-up.  Diaz impressed in the Appy League last year, but had some command issues, and Espada, after a solid pro debut in 2015, didn't miss as many bats when he moved up a level last year.  Some dark-horse candidates to make the rotation may include Wilfri Aleton, who fanned almost a batter per inning in the GCL last year, Juliandry Higuera, who has spent most of the last two seasons with Bluefield, or even Maximo Castillo, who pitched as a 17 year old in the GCL last summer.  Luis Sanchez made 12 starts for Vancouver last year, and may fill out the back end of the Lansing rotation if the other candidates don't prove to be ready.

Relief Pitchers

PositionPlayerAge2016 teamWHIP/K/9/BB.9
RPJackson McClelland22Vancouver1.35/7.4/3.0
RPGriffin Glaude24Van-Lansing1.32/10.2/4.2
RPZach Jackson22Vancouver1.42/6.1/11.7
RP Jackson Lowery24Van-Lansing1.13/8.7/2.5
RPJared Carkuff23GCL Jays-Van1.01/12.5/1.4
RPGeno Encina22Van-Lansing1.03/9.0/1.6
   This is probably the hardest group to predict.  Jackson may be the most notable name of the group. Owner of one of the best curveballs in the system, he may not be in Lansing long.  A few names who might elbow their way into contention for a spot include Travis Bergen (limited to 5 innings last year), Conner Eller (7 Saves for Bluefield, 8.6K/9 for Bluefield in 2016), or Vancouver relievers Gabe Noyalis, Grayson Huffman, or Evan Smith.  Despite the uncertainty of its makeup, the bullpen may be one of its strengths.

   The 2016 Lugnuts promise to be one of the better editions of the team in recent years, although their pitching depth may be a concern.  With Lansing just over a 4 hour drive from the Greater Toronto Area (there are no plans as of this moment to stream the Lugs' home games over milb.tv), the trip may be well worth your while this year.